The Role of Conflict Analysis in Conflict Resolution: Reflections on International Mediation. The Case of Angola

In face of the growing number of armed conflicts worldwide and their increasing complexity, conflict resolution theory development is an imperative. That such an imperative has already resulted in the development of a number of specific methodologies for the resolution of contemporary armed conflicts is very positive in a conflict landscape constituted by wars which are structurally different. However, only a fraction of ‘new wars’ and 'wars of the third kind’ have benefited from the application of these new and innovative approaches to conflict resolution. The ‘Clausewitzian universe’ continues to exert its influence and 'conflict resolution' at the international level ostensibly remains characterised by dispute settlement processes, achieved through the use of international negotiation tools such as bargaining. ‘Conflict resolution’ remains overwhelmingly about power brokerage between groups in conflict. Nevertheless, ‘new wars’ and 'wars of the third kind’ are notoriously resistant to such ‘resolution’ methods and in some cases they have contributed to their very protractedness. Why should contemporary conflicts be so fundamentally incompatible with resolution by negotiation and bargaining? Equally important, what are the reasons behind practitioners’ insistence on such processes, when they have repeatedly proven inadequate in the resolution of current wars? At the root of this problem is the issue of conflict analysis. Understanding these two different issues requires a discussion of the assumptions upon which conflict resolution theory has been developed and the underlying beliefs of practitioners involved in conflict resolution. Conflict analysis and the way armed conflicts are explained have been at the root of both the development of conflict resolution theory as well as underlying actions towards conflict resolution. It is only through the wider application of adequate conflict analysis to the practical world of conflict resolution and diplomacy that processes which emphasise the facilitated analysis of underlying, also termed structural, sources of conflict will be achieved.