Forced migration disentangled - How do armed conflicts lead to displacement?

In this dissertation, I investigate the factors behind variances in forced migration flows and try to develop a deeper understanding of the causal relationship between political violence and forced displacement by building comprehensive models, which account for political, social and economic factors. I theorize that the degree to which civilians are targeted during episodes of political violence directly affects the number of forced migration flows, leading to an original methodological approach based on a large-n, a country survey and semi-structured interview analyses. The results from a global analysis for the period of 1970-2016 bring a neglected association between terrorism and forced displacement into spotlight, while I do not find evidence in support of the increasingly popular 'economic refugee' argument. The large-n analysis also confirms that rising intensity of violence and declining civil and political liberties are powerful drivers of forced migration. In addition, a survey study of migration intentions in post-Saddam Iraq confirms the ambiguous effect of economic status on the process of shaping migration intentions. The survey analysis also shows that migration intentions do not cede with prospects of an ending conflict. Findings from Iraq further indicate that potential refugees are generally well educated contrary to popular assumptions about forced migrants. Concluding the study with interviews of refugees in the UK provides an opportunity to further interrogate the reasons behind remaining while other leave and demonstrates the impact of individual agency in the decision making process. The interviews show that exposure to political violence leads to almost identical experiences and impacts on the participants despite their various backgrounds, which led them to their ultimate decision of leaving. When asked about economic reasons that may have contributed to their decision to move, none of the participants found such factors to be relevant. On the contrary, most participants in this study held relatively better economic and social status in their country of origin.