Russia's War in Ukraine: a Watershed for Europe

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marks a watershed. First, it signifies the return in Europe of large-scale interstate war, aimed at territorial expansion. Second, it indicates a radical shift in Russia’s strategy, from destabilising Ukraine through relatively limited means to massive military coercion. Third, it seals the end of the post Cold War security order, whose deep crisis made it ineffective to prevent the conflict. Fourth, the war reinforced the transatlantic front, thus aggravating Russia’s security concerns. The war cannot be explained as the result of an escalation of tensions with the West, as there is too much of a disconnect and disproportionality between Moscow’s voiced security concerns and its war objectives. It is vital to understand domestic factors: the Kremlin’s perception of the ‘loss’ of Ukraine, in a blend of geopolitical and identity-based thinking, and the gradual escalation of its Ukraine strategy, because of consecutively failing scenarios.