A generalized heterogeneous autoregressive model using market information

This paper introduces a novel class of volatility forecasting models that incorporate market realized (co)variances and semi(co)variances within the framework of a heterogeneous au­toregressive (HAR) model. Our empirical analysis shows statistically and economically significant forecasting gains. For our most parsimonious market-HAR specification, stock volatility forecasting is improved by 9.80\% points. Using a mixed sampling frequency market-HAR variant with low (high) sampling frequency for the stock (market) improves forecasting by a further 6.90\% points. Our paper also develops noise-robust estimators to facilitate the use of realized semi(co)variances at high sampling frequencies.