A Retrospective Structural Break Analysis of the French German Interest Rate Differential in the run up to EMU

Mean breaks in the Franco-German interest rate differential prior to European Monetary Union can have an economic interpretation, namely gains or losses in credibility of the corresponding ERM central exchange rate. A variety of tests are used to detect such breaks, on daily data covering the 1990s. The analysis paints a broadly consistent picture of these breaks and how expectations evolved before EMU. Results suggest that credibility was characterised by gains as well as setbacks; however an effective convergence is found from 1996 onwards, suggesting a major increase of the credibility of the French participation to EMU around that date.