Federalism and conflict management in multi ethnic societies : The case of Cyprus in comparative Perspective

This thesis examines the federal elements of the the latest UN model-the Annan Planusing theories of federalism and carefully selected comparative case studies to generate “benchmarks” for an evaluation. The purpose of that study is to explore the conditions under which federalism is likely to achieve peaceful outcomes in Cyprus.

The study poses three questions related to the accommodation of ethnic diversity in Cyprus. These questions arise from the need to make a contribution to the political discussion about the future of a multi-ethnic, unified Cyprus and from the theoretical discussions about the capacity of federal systems to promote conflict management in multi-ethnic societies. The first focuses on federalism as a way of dealing with conflict in multi-ethnic societies. The second asks whether federalism envisioned in the Annan Plan is an adequate framework to hold Cyprus together. The third question studies the conditions under which federalism is expected to play a positive role for sustainable conflict resolution in Cyprus. The literature on federalism has a tendency to make insufficiently precise claims regarding the conditions under which institutional arrangements are likely to achieve peaceful outcomes. These three questions are developed in three separate sections. The first puts forward various conflict management institutions and techniques in order to evaluate to what extent they are likely to contribute to the legitimacy of a multi-ethnic polity. In the second section, carefully selected case studies have been used to demonstrate how - and with what effect - federal and consociational institutions have been used under similar conditions. Finally, interviews with the main political actors in Cyprus have been conducted to assess whether the Annan Plan is likely to contribute to the accommodation of ethnic diversity. The argument is that creating and maintaining a multi-ethnic federal system depends on context, on the motivations of the parties involved, and in the details of the autonomy arrangements. The conditions under which federalism diminishes ethnic conflict depend on the interaction between federal institutions, regional inequality, and ethnic diversity in a society. The analysis shows that the federal model envisaged in the Plan is less likely to be suitable for Cyprus, not merely because of the lack of preconditions but also because the designed institutions in the Plan that do not address the social, economic, political and demographic characteristics of the society.