The effect of trade liberalization on exports, imports, the balance of trade, and growth: the case of Mexico

The aim of this paper is to disentangle the effects of trade liberalization during the mid-1980s from the liberalization involved in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on exports, imports, and the balance of trade in Mexico. The main empirical results suggest that the trade reforms during the mid-1980s had a significant effect on trade, exports, and imports; however, the effects of NAFTA, at least on exports, are negligible. Since the mid-1980s, the propensity to import has exceeded the propensity to export, and this has worsened the growth rate consistent with balanced trade, which is a major explanation of the slowdown of Mexico's growth in recent years. NAFTA has not delivered the improved growth performance that was promised by Mexico's political leaders at the time.