Predicted impact of climate change on the distribution of the Critically Endangered golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca) in Madagascar

The impact of climate change on Malagasy amphibians remains poorly understood. Equally, deforestation, fragmentation, and lack of connectivity between forest patches may leave vulnerable species isolated in habitat that no longer suits their environmental or biological requirements. We assess the predicted impact of climate change by 2085 on the potential distribution of a Critically Endangered frog species, the golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca), that is confined to a small area of the central rainforest of Madagascar. We identify potential population distributions and climatically stable areas. Results suggest a potential south-eastwardly shift away from the current range and a decrease in suitable habitat from 2110 km2 under current climate to between 112 km2 – 138 km2 by the year 2085 – less than 7% of currently available suitable habitat. Results also indicate that the amount of golden mantella habitat falling within protected areas decreases by 86% over the same period. We recommend research to ascertain future viability and the feasibility of expanding protection to newly identified potential sites. This information can then be used in future conservation actions such as habitat restoration, translocations, re-introductions or the siting of further wildlife corridors or protected areas.