Entrapped in a failing course of action: Explaining the territorial crisis in 2017 Catalonia

Why did the territorial conflict between the governments of Catalonia and Spain escalate to the point of extreme institutional disruption in October 2017? The present article explains this crisis – a declaration of independence followed by the imposition of direct rule – as the outcome of an Escalation of Commitment behaviour. By examining the iterative relationship between both governments, the article shows that they were trapped in a failing course of action, unable to withdraw from their early political decisions. Despite facing increasingly negative outcomes from their choices, both sides had already invested too much political capital to quit. Expectations and self-justification attitudes account for the escalation behaviour, together with a radicalized decision environment. The findings have broader implications for the study of nationalist politics: they show that the commitment to early decisions mediated by the existence of strong political incentives against compromise may lead to the escalation of territorial conflicts.