Psychological predictors of deterrence from travel due to terrorist action

Research has shown that terrorism is associated with a decline in tourism to targeted countries (Enders & Sandler, 1991). The existing studies are based on a retrospective analysis of tourism statistics in relation to occurrences of terrorism. The present research moves beyond these earlier studies by identifying in realtime the duration and extent of the psychological impact of an act of terrorism on deterrence from travelling. It is evident that there are individual differences in this variable, with some people being easily deterred, whilst others continue to visit countries that have been terrorist targets. Other research that has sought to identify factors associated with people's travel decisions in the light of terrorism have used the concept of terrorism in the abstract, rather than with reference to a real-world event (Sonmez & Graefe, 1998). The present research identifies the utility of risk perception, sensation-seeking personality, attitude and socialisation variables as predictors of deterrence from travelling due to the threat of terrorism. The measure of deterrence from travelling was again assessed with reference to realworld terrorist events. Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), Sensation seeking (Zuckerman, 1994) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1988) provide the theoretical bases for this research. The research also investigates these factors as predictors of the intention to travel by air, and the role of travel motive in relation to travel intentions. It was found that attitude to international travel, risk perception for the threat of terrorism and level of thrill and adventure seeking were the strongest predictors of deterrence from travelling. The relationship between the predictor variables and the intention to travel by air was found to alter depending upon the destination and reason for which the travel was intended. The implications of the findings are discussed, both in relation to how they develop the theoretical approaches and for the application of these in understanding and limiting the negative consequences of terrorism on the public.