An analysis of the effects of the oil industry on economic development in Nigeria

This thesis examines the direct and indirect effects of the oil industry on economic development in Nigeria between 1960 and 1995. Three main empirical issues are addressed. Firstly, the thesis questions the relevance of orthodox models of Dutch Disease to Nigeria by testing the effects of variables such as the real price of oil and government real investment expenditures in the oil sector on sectoral output, and investment and labour demand. Secondly, the effect of a smaller oil sector on the economy in general and on the manufacturing sector in particular is analysed. Thirdly, the effects of the balance of payments on the economy under both a fixed and a floating exchange rate system are examined. This study is in two parts.

Part I which comprises Chapters One to Four provides the background and descriptive accounts of the thesis. Chapter One is an introductory chapter. In Chapter Two, a description of the Nigerian economy and macroeconomic policy developments from 1960 to 1995 is provided. In Chapter Three, a critical examination of the oil sector is carried out including an account of tile direct physical and environmental effects. Chapter Four provides a theoretical and empirical overview of the literature on Dutch Disease and related macroeconomic sectoral models.

Part II comprises the core empirical chapters. Tn Chapter Five, a dynamic multi sectoral Dutch Disease macroeconomic model is developed. In this chapter, three variants are considered, a world price model, an exogenous exchange rate model and a balance of payments constrained growth rate model. The chapter also discusses a number of econometric issues in the context of simultaneous equation models. In Chapter Six, the model is estimated and parameter estimates examined. Tn Chapter Seven, a critical examination of the Nigerian manufacturing sector is carried out which is based on the estimated Dutch Disease macro model under both a floating and a fixed exchange rate system and on a constructed traded goods index. An account of Nigeria's industrial poiicy developments since 1960 is also given. In Chapter Eight, the model is used for examining the effects of the balance of payments oti tile Nigerian economy under a floating exchange rate system. In this chapter, various theoretical models of exchange rate determination are used to calculate the Nigerian Naira exchange rate. A detailed account of exchange rate and related macroeconomic policy developments in Nigeria since 1914 is contained in an appendix. The summary and conclusions of the study are contained in Chapter Nine.