Modelling tourism demand for Mediterranean destinations

The thesis uses two alternative theoretical and econometric approaches to model tourism demand, focusing on tourism flows originating from major European countries -the UK, West Germany, France, Sweden -as well as the USA- to major Mediterranean destinations -Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Turkey.

The first approach formulates dynamic single equation models, based on specific origin-todestination features, and applies the "general to simple" econometric methodology. The short and long-run impact on tourism receipts of variables such as income, inflation, exchange rates and political instability is estimated and discussed. The second approach draws upon the most recent developments in consumer behaviour theory and complete systems of equations econometric models are estimated, based on the functional form of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. The impact of changes in effective prices and tourism expenditure to each tourism destination on the allocation of the consumer's predetermined tourism budget is studied. Predictions of tourism demand are estimated and related policy implications are considered.