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Citizen Endorsement of Contested Peace Settlements: Public Opinion in Post-Dayton Bosnia

Morgan-Jones, Edward, Stefanovic, Djordje, Loizides, Neophytos (2020) Citizen Endorsement of Contested Peace Settlements: Public Opinion in Post-Dayton Bosnia. Democratization, . ISSN 1351-0347. E-ISSN 1743-890X. (doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1828356) (Access to this publication is currently restricted. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:83960)

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Abstract

This article asks what shapes public support for comprehensive peace agreements that aim to end violent conflict in deeply divided societies. Although public perceptions are critical for the success of territorial settlements, little scholarly attention has focused on citizen attitudes towards peace in the post-implementation phase. We develop and empirically test a theory of citizen support for peace agreements that relates power-sharing institutions to broader citizens’ security considerations and integrates into this theory the roles of international peacekeeping, ascriptive minority/majority identities and exposure to alternative governance structures (i.e. federal, consociational and centripetalist). We argue that the degree to which a peace treaty provides credible security to citizens determines public support for power-sharing. We test this argument in a least likely case Bosnia Herzegovina. Using data from a 2013 representative survey with 1007 respondents, we examine the determinants of popular support for the Dayton Peace Accords. Our findings suggest that in each of the three main ethnic groups of Bosnia, more people would have voted for Dayton than against it and highlight the mechanisms through which individual and ethnic group security concerns shape support for the country’s post-conflict institutions.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1080/13510347.2020.1828356
Uncontrolled keywords: federalism, consociationalism, Bosnia, peacemaking, centripetalism.
Subjects: J Political Science > JF Political institutions and public administration
J Political Science > JN Political institutions and public administration (Europe)
J Political Science > JZ International relations
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Politics and International Relations
Depositing User: Edward Morgan-Jones
Date Deposited: 06 Nov 2020 14:28 UTC
Last Modified: 07 Sep 2021 12:38 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/83960 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Morgan-Jones, Edward: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0231-5156
Stefanovic, Djordje: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3479-370X
Loizides, Neophytos: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0327-4643
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