Aversion amplification in the emerging COVID-19 pandemic: The impact of political trust and subjective uncertainty on perceived threat

Health psychology shows that responses to risk and threat depend on perceptions as much as objective factors. The present study focuses on precursors of perceived threat of COVID-19. We use the aversion amplification hypothesis from political and social psychology to propose that subjective uncertainty and political trust should interactively impact perceived threat. We conducted a cross-sectional survey amongst the general population of Scotland (N = 188) in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesised that high political trust should ameliorate the threat-elevating impact of uncertainty, thereby reducing perceived threat from high to moderate level. This hypothesis was supported, even after accounting for demographic differences. The discussion addresses the implications of the interactive role of trust and uncertainty for strategies to manage public behaviour as the pandemic progresses.