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Integrated modeling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scales

Dennis, Emily B., Kery, Mark, Morgan, Byron J. T., Coray, Armin, Schaub, Michael, Baur, Bruno (2021) Integrated modeling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scales. Ecological Modelling, 441 . Article Number 109408. ISSN 0304-3800. (doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109408) (KAR id:72726)


1. Population size of species with birth-pulse life-cycles varies both within and between seasons, but most population dynamics models ignore the former and assume that a population can be characterised adequately by a single number within a season. However, within-season dynamics can be too substantial to be ignored when modelling dynamics between seasons. Typical examples are insect populations or migratory animals. Numerous models for only between-season dynamics exist, but very few have combined dynamics at both temporal scales.

2. We extend the models of Dennis et al. (2016b) in two directions: we adapt them for a generation time >1 year and fit them as an integrated population model for multiple data types, by maximising a joint likelihood for time-series of population counts of unmarked individuals and capture-recapture data from a smaller sample of sites with marked individuals. We analyse annual monitoring data for the endangered flightless beetle Iberodorcadion fuliginator from 17 populations in the Upper Rhine Valley for 1998–2016, with a 2-year life cycle. Standard tools of classical statistics are used for model fitting and comparison and a concentrated likelihood approach provides computational efficiency.

3. The additional information introduced by the capture-recapture data makes the population model more robust and also enables true, rather than relative, abundance to be estimated. Fitting a dynamic stopover model provides estimates of survival and phenology parameters within a season, as well as productivity between seasons. For I. fuliginator, we demonstrate a population decline since 1998 and how this links with productivity, which is affected by temperature. A delayed mean emergence date in recent years is also shown.

4. A main point of interest in our work is the focus on the two temporal scales at which perhaps most animal populations vary: in the short-term, a population is seldom ever truly closed even within a single season, and in the long term (between seasons) it never is. Hence models such as ours may serve as a template for a very general description of population dynamics in many species. This includes rare species with limited data sets, for which there is a general lack of population dynamic models, yet conservation actions may greatly benefit from this kind of models.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109408
Uncontrolled keywords: Beetle; Endangered; Iberodorcadion fuliginator; integrated population model; Multi-scale population dynamics; Population model
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science) > QA276 Mathematical statistics
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH541 Ecology
Q Science > QL Zoology
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Computing, Engineering and Mathematical Sciences > School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science
Funders: Organisations -1 not found.
Depositing User: Byron Morgan
Date Deposited: 22 Feb 2019 20:16 UTC
Last Modified: 09 Dec 2022 00:32 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

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Dennis, Emily B..

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Morgan, Byron J. T..

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