Estimating probabilities and numbers of direct care workers paid under the National Minimum Wage in the UK

The report starts by discussing some of the challenges faced in calculating hourly pay rates of direct care workers, then discusses the advantages and challenges of such calculations using available national datasets. We produce an adjustment methodology and discuss the relevance of employing a Bayesian approach to account for existing prior knowledge. The report then provides details of the process of estimating the probabilities of direct care workers being paid under the NMW and estimates of the number of direct care workers in the UK.