Skip to main content
Kent Academic Repository

Forecasting self-employment in the UK

Saridakis, G., Papaioannou, G. (2014) Forecasting self-employment in the UK. Empirical Economics Letters, 13 (9). pp. 923-930. ISSN 1681-8997. (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:66083)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided.
Official URL:
http://www.eel.my100megs.com/volume-13-number-9.ht...

Abstract

In this paper we forecast UK self-employment, using annual data for five decades. We use the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methodology to produce a forecast three periods into the future (2014-2016). We also express the ARMA model as a state space model and estimate one-step predictions and dynamic forecasts for the same period. We then compare the univariate forecasts with multivariate multi-step ahead forecasts using a vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology. Comparing the multivariate forecasts with the univariate forecasts, we observe that both point to an increase in UK enterprise activity in the future, with the increase being sharper in the former.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled keywords: Self-employment; ARMA; State space; Var
Subjects: H Social Sciences
H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Divisions > Kent Business School - Division > Department of Marketing, Entrepreneurship and International Business
Depositing User: George Saridakis
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2018 11:49 UTC
Last Modified: 17 Aug 2022 11:02 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/66083 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

  • Depositors only (login required):

Total unique views for this document in KAR since July 2020. For more details click on the image.