Shop crime and deterrence: Evidence on shoplifting among young people in the youth lifestyle survey (YLS)

I use data from the 1998 Youth Lifestyle Survey to assess empirically the link between perceived deterrence and criminal involvement. I concentrate on shop theft and two specific deterrents: The perceived probability of detection and the perceived consequences stemming from detection in terms of job loss. The estimation of the deterrence model reveals that perceived deterrents significantly influence criminal activity. I investigate whether perceptions are determined simultaneously with crime, through learning in the light of personal experience. To overcome this simultaneity problem, I use an instrumental variables strategy to estimate the deterrence model. Recent techniques of propensity score matching algorithms developed are also considered. The results are robust and consistent with the deterrence theory.