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The statistical relation of sea-level and temperature revisited

Grassi, Stefano, Hillebrand, Eric, Ventosa-Santaularia, Daniel (2013) The statistical relation of sea-level and temperature revisited. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 64 . pp. 1-9. ISSN 0377-0265. (doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2013.07.001) (KAR id:50760)


We propose a semi-empirical model for the relation between global mean surface temperature and global sea-levels. In contradistinction to earlier approaches to this problem, the model allows for valid statistical inference and joint estimation of trend components and interaction term of temperature and sea-level. Estimation of the model on the data set used in Rahmstorf (2007) yields a proportionality coefficient of 4.6 mm/year per °C at a one-sided significance level of 7.6 percent or higher. Long-term simulations of the model result in a two-sided 90-percent confidence interval for the sea-level rise in the year 2100 of [15 cm, 150 cm] above the 1990 level. This is a wider margin of error than was reported in the previous literature, and it reflects the substantial uncertainty in relating two trending time series.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2013.07.001
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Economics
Depositing User: Stefano Grassi
Date Deposited: 03 Oct 2015 16:14 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2021 10:21 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Grassi, Stefano.

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