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Exploring the consequences of reducing survey effort for detecting individual and temporal variability in survival

Lahoz-Monfort, Jose J., Harris, Michael P., Morgan, Byron J. T., Freeman, Stephen N., Wanless, Sarah (2014) Exploring the consequences of reducing survey effort for detecting individual and temporal variability in survival. Journal of Applied Ecology, 51 (2). pp. 534-543. ISSN 0021-8901. (doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12214) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:41240)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided.
Official URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12214

Abstract

1. Long-term monitoring programmes often involve substantial input of skilled staff time. In

mark–recapture studies, considerable effort is usually devoted to both marking and recaptur-

ing/resighting individuals. Given increasing budgetary constraints, it is essential to streamline

field protocols to minimize data redundancy while still achieving targets such as detecting

trends or ecological effects.

2. We evaluated different levels of field effort investment in marking and resighting individu-

als by resampling existing mark–recapture–recovery data to construct plausible scenarios of

changes in field protocols. We demonstrate the method with 26 years data from a common

guillemot Uria aalge monitoring programme at a major North Sea colony. We also assess the

impact of stopping the ringing of chicks on our ability to study population demography using

integrated population models (IPM) fitted to data including information on breeding adults.

Different data sets were removed artificially to explore the ability to compensate for missing

data.

3. Current ringing effort at this colony appears adequate but resighting effort could be

halved while still maintaining the capacity to monitor first-year survival and detect the effect

of hatch date on survival prospects.

4. The IPM appears robust for estimating survival, productivity or abundance of the breed-

ing population, but has limited capacity to recover year-specific first-year survival when chick

data are omitted. If productivity were not monitored, the inclusion of chick data would be

essential to estimate it, albeit imprecisely.

5. Synthesis and applications. Post-study evaluation can help streamline existing long-term

environmental monitoring programmes. To our knowledge, this study is the first use of data

thinning of existing mark–recapture–recovery data to identify potential field effort reductions.

We also highlight how alternative monitoring scenarios can be evaluated with integrated pop-

ulation models when data are collected on different aspects of demography and abundance.

When effort reduction is necessary, both approaches provide decision-support tools for

adjusting field protocols to collect demographic data. The framework has broad applicability

to other taxa and demographic parameters, provided suitable long-term data are available,

and we discuss its use in different contexts.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1111/1365-2664.12214
Uncontrolled keywords: data thinning, hidden parameters, individual covariates, integrated population model, juvenile survival, long-term monitoring, mark–recapture–recovery, productivity, survey design, Uria aalge
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science) > QA276 Mathematical statistics
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH541 Ecology
Q Science > QL Zoology
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Computing, Engineering and Mathematical Sciences > School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science
Depositing User: Byron Morgan
Date Deposited: 30 May 2014 12:41 UTC
Last Modified: 17 Aug 2022 10:57 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/41240 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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