Party Identification and the Social Bases of Voting Behaviour in the 2002 Bundestag Election.

In this paper it will be shown that socio-economic variables such as class and religious denomination still play and important – if reduced – role in explaining voting behaviour in Germany. Party identification still contributes to a stabilisation of the parties’ vote, but has continued to decline in Western Germany and has continued to be relatively low in Eastern Germany. The loosening of traditional longer-term ties between parties and important voter groups and the lower psychological attachment to political parties has contributed to higher levels of volatility and an increasing number of voters who choose their party increasingly late in an electoral campaign. This may go some way in explaining the sensitivity of voters to unexpected events during the course of the 2002 campaign and the changing fortunes of the parties during the campaign. It will be argued that growing levels of volatility have increased the uncertainty in the parties’ bargaining environment at the governmental level and – ceteris paribus – contributed to the growing scope for policy gridlock.