On inference about the introduction time of an introduced species with an application to the pine marten on Mull

Although there is general agreement that the pine marten was recently introduced to the Isle of Mull, there is uncertainty about when. According to a persistent local rumor, the species was clandestinely introduced in 1986. A novel statistical approach to inference about introduction time based on a sighting record is described and applied to assess the plausibility of this rumor. The results indicate that the sighting record is consistent with the rumored introduction time. Inference about the introduction time is useful in the management of introduced species for the light it can shed on the mode of introduction, post-introduction population growth and spatial dispersal, and the potential role of the introduced species in other observed ecological changes. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.