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Forecasting Warranty Claims for Recently Launched Products

Wu, Shaomin, Akbarov, Artur (2012) Forecasting Warranty Claims for Recently Launched Products. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 106 (NA). pp. 160-164. ISSN 0951-8320. (doi:10.1016/j.ress.2012.06.008) (KAR id:31003)


Forecasting warranty claims for recently launched products that have short histories of claim records is vitally important for manufacturers in preparing their fiscal plans. Since the amount of historical claim data for such products is not large enough, developing forecasting models with good performance has been a difficult problem. The objective of this paper is to develop an algorithm for forecasting the number of warranty claims of recently launched products. A two-phase modelling algorithm is developed: in Phase I, we estimate the upper and the lower bounds of the warranty claim rates of the reference products that have been in the market for a longer time; in Phase II, we build forecasting models for the recently launched products and assume that their future claim rates are subject to the bound constraints derived from Phase I. Based on this algorithm, we use the NHPP (non-homogeneous Poisson process) and the constrained maximum likelihood estimation to build forecasting models on artificially generated data as well as warranty claim data collected from an electronics manufacturer. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms commonly used NHPP models. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.06.008
Additional information: Unmapped bibliographic data: PY - 2012/// [EPrints field already has value set] AD - Cranfield University, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, United Kingdom [Field not mapped to EPrints] JA - Reliab Eng Syst Saf [Field not mapped to EPrints]
Uncontrolled keywords: Constrained maximum likelihood estimation, Forecasting, Non-homogenous Poisson process (NHPP), Warranty claims, Bound constraints, Electronics manufacturers, Forecasting models, In-phase, Lower bounds, Non-homogeneous Poisson process, Poisson process, Two-phase modelling, Warranty claims, Algorithms, Manufacture, Maximum likelihood estimation, Poisson distribution, Forecasting
Subjects: H Social Sciences
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA33 Management Science
Divisions: Divisions > Kent Business School - Division > Department of Analytics, Operations and Systems
Depositing User: Shaomin Wu
Date Deposited: 26 Sep 2012 16:14 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2021 10:08 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

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