Long-term Care Expenditure for Older People, Projections to 2022 for Great Britain. Funded/commissioned by: Institute for Public Policy Research

<p>This paper presents projections to 2022 of the numbers of disabled older people in Great Britain, the numbers of older clients of long-term care services and associated public and private expenditure. It has been prepared for the Institute for Public Policy

Research (IPPR) as a contribution to their wider study for the Disability Rights Commission (DRC). The projections presented here are intended as important background to discussion about the services needed for future cohorts of older disabled people.</p>

<p>The paper has four sections. The second section describes the PSSRU long-term care projections model, with a focus on the parts of the model concerned with disability and informal care. In the third section, the paper describes the key projections,

produced under a set of the base case assumptions. The fourth section looks at what happens when these assumptions change and is split into two parts. The first part reports on scenarios based on varying the assumptions around factors exogenous to

long-term care policy, including disability and unit costs. The second part describes scenarios based on varying patterns of care, which includes two scenarios that make changes to the patterns of formal care.</p>