'The Cedar Revolution' and Lebanese Independence and the Question of Collective Self-Determination

The article rejects the notion conveyed by the expression 'the Cedar Revolution' that Lebanon has recently experienced radical political changes. On the basis of an empirical survey of recent developments, it identifies four elements of continuity; the confessional nature of Lebanese politics, the omnipresence of trans-national alliances, the confrontational nature of the political rhetoric and the continuation of foreign interventions in Lebanon's internal affairs. Making use of opinion surveys, it argues that some of these elements indicate the existence of an independence-integration cleavage in Lebanon which follows sectarian lines and which renders the conceptualization of Lebanese citizens as a collective actor able to exercise collective self-determination-either by gaining complete independence or establishing close ties with Syria-problematic. Finally, it argues at a theoretical level that the problem of collective agent and the ensuing problem of collective self-determination can potentially emerge in any polity where there is an independence-integration cleavage.