A Modeling Strategy for Recovery Data from Birds Ringed as Nestlings

In this paper we propose a strategy for analysing recovery data from birds ringed as nestlings. The approach advocated starts with a global model, involving calendar year dependence of both reporting and first-year survival rates, and age-dependence of survival rates for older birds. Likelihood ratio tests are then used to choose between a range of submodels. The strategy is illustrated through application to three data sets, on mallards, herring gulls, and blue-winged teal. The effect of age-dependence operating also on reporting rates is examined through matched simulations, since a model with age-dependent reporting rates cannot be fitted directly. This reveals an underestimation of the first-year survival rates, when the probability of recovery for first-year birds is greater than that for older birds. It is argued that this bias may not be serious and indeed may be allowed for in practice. For mallards and teal, comparisons are drawn with the results from other models that additionally analyse recoveries of birds ringed as adults; the same general conclusions are reached.