Attribution Testing: Exposing the Influence of Reverse Causation in the Attribution of Better Performance to ISO 9000 Quality Management Systems

ISO 9000 Management Systems adoption (QCert) has proven to be a persistent and

growing phenomenon, yet to date little research has been done that can safely

attribute improved business performance benefits to it. The paper examines the

evidence for the causal links between QCert and improved performance in the

empirical literature. Tests for attribution of performance improvement are

proposed that analyze, effect, cause and effect magnitude and these are

illustrated to show how they influence the interpretation of results. The

attribution testing method is then used to interpret the results of two USA and two

European longitudinal studies and the role of reverse causation is shown to be a

major mechanism that explains the superior performance of the certified firms.

The analyses cast doubt on any inference causality being drawn from the broad

literature that finds an association of ISO 9000 accreditation with better business

performance since it indicates that the strongest direction of causality is that firms

with superior performance are more likely to have certification, not that certified

firms are more likely to have superior performance. The findings have profound

implications for the interpretation of causation in the substantial literature that

shows QCert is associated with improved business performance. For researchers

the paper provides logic for testing the influence of reverse causation on results

and it demonstrates the potential confusion of attribution that can lead to the

development of flawed or incomplete theory.