Modelling the Spatial Dynamics of Plant Viruses

A computer model is described which simulates the temporal and spatial dynamics of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV). The model is composed of three sub-models which described: (i) aphid population dynamics (incorporating aphid/vector immigration, development, mortality and reproduction), (ii) aphid dispersal (distinction between primary infection and secondary spread of virus is made), and (iii) virus epidemiology (incorporating acquisition, transmission and latent periods of virus in both vector and host). Simulation using the model suggested that the latent period of the virus in its plant host and dispersal of apterous vectors had the greatest influence on virus incidence. Although at a prototype stage the model seems to provide a sound basis for the development of a practical system for management of BYDV.