Eurosclerosis in European welfare states: Regime theory and the dynamics of change

The most influential categorisation of capitalist welfare systems - regime theory - suggests that European welfare states will find it difficult to adapt to the changing circumstances of more intense international competition. The problem is seen as particularly severe in the dominant continental corporatist regime. This article uses data from a recent study of the views of politicians, representatives of employers' organisations, unions, the voluntary sector and religious organisations, civil servants and journalists in four European countries to examine this claim. The pattern of opinion fits that predicted by theory, but the potential for change appears to differ in different countries for specific local reasons. Regime theory may be better at understanding stability than in capturing the forces that make for change, and may find it increasingly difficult to do justice to the increasingly uncertain international context of welfare.