Skip to main content
Kent Academic Repository

Unveiling individual and collective temporal patterns in the tanker shipping network

Teo, Kevin, Arnold, Naomi, Hone, Andrew, Coulon, Michael, Ireland, Martin, Santillana, Mauricio, Kiss, István Z. (2026) Unveiling individual and collective temporal patterns in the tanker shipping network. Nature Communications, 17 . Article Number 3300. ISSN 2041-1723. (doi:10.1038/s41467-026-70013-1) (KAR id:113404)

Abstract

The global oil tanker shipping network emerges from individual ship and fleet decisions driven by economic, environmental, and operational factors. However, most existing shipping network analysis rely on static, time-aggregated representations, overlooking critical temporality connecting individual vessel routing strategies with both operational efficiency and global cargo flows. To address this gap, we introduce a dual-scale framework complementing sequential motif analysis-capturing recurrent patterns in vessel movement sequences-with Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), extracting temporal dynamics from vessel trajectories to global cargo flows. Using tanker movement data across four vessel classes, we demonstrate that vessels exhibiting diverse regional exploration patterns spend up to 50% more time transporting rather than seeking cargo, indicating greater economic and environmental efficiency. At the system scale, DMD analysis reveals distinct seasonality with an average peak-to-trough amplitude of 16%. Major import regions show synchronous annual demand cycles, while export regions exhibit anti-synchronicity. These temporal patterns, invisible to static analysis, reveal performance differences that enable route optimization for both economic and environmental benefits.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1038/s41467-026-70013-1
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
T Technology
Institutional Unit: Schools > School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physics > Engineering
Former Institutional Unit:
There are no former institutional units.
Funders: University of Kent (https://ror.org/00xkeyj56)
SWORD Depositor: JISC Publications Router
Depositing User: JISC Publications Router
Date Deposited: 10 Apr 2026 08:41 UTC
Last Modified: 13 Apr 2026 21:29 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/113404 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

  • Depositors only (login required):

Total unique views of this page since July 2020. For more details click on the image.