Human elephant co-existence in a post-ivory ban landscape

Human-driven pressures such as habitat loss, illegal wildlife trade, and human-wildlife conflict challenge biodiversity conservation, necessitating integrated approaches to foster coexistence between humans and wildlife. Focusing on the African elephants (Loxodonta africana and L. cyclotis), keystone and flagship taxa, can act as a conduit to explore broader questions of conservation policy, spatial planning, and socio-ecological dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa. The 1989 global ivory trade ban under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) of wild fauna and flora, and the subsequent closure of domestic markets have reshaped elephant conservation, reducing poaching in some regions while exposing persistent challenges like habitat fragmentation, climate change, and human-elephant conflict (HEC). Guided by the African Elephant Action Plan (AEAP), which prioritises stakeholder collaboration, conflict mitigation and sustainable livelihoods, this study integrates ecological modelling, spatial analysis, and socio-economic evaluation to address critical knowledge gaps in fostering sustainable coexistence in multifunctional landscapes post-ivory ban.

The African elephant’s ecological significance – large home ranges sensitive to fragmentation, and role in shaping ecosystems – along with symbolic status in conservation and tourism, makes it an ideal lens for examining how global policy shifts, such as the ivory ban, interact with land-use changes, population dynamics and conflict patterns. The study adopts a mixed-methods, spatially explicit approach, to achieve three primary objectives: (1) modelling potential elephant population recovery under varying pressures of illegal killing post-ivory ban (2) assessing the impacts of climate change, habitat fragmentation, and population isolation on elephant range shifts and population viability into the future, and (3) identifying human-elephant conflict hotspots and evaluating ecotourism’s potential as a coexistence strategy.

In Chapter 2, illegal killing is analysed across Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa using species distribution models and spatially explicit individual-based simulations in RangeShifter. The illegal killing scenarios were developed using empirical data on regional elephant mortality from Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) datasets. Results reveal marked subregional disparities in elephant population viability: while Eastern and Southern populations demonstrate capacity for recovery and range expansion under reduced poaching pressure, populations in Central and Western Africa face near-certain extinction under current illegal killing rates. The findings underscore the need for differentiated conservation strategies, including targeted anti-poaching interventions, habitat protection, range connectivity and strategic translocations to ease overabundance while at the same time restocking under-occupied but suitable habitats.

Chapter 3 evaluates the relative impacts of climate change and fragmentation on elephant dispersal and long-term viability using habitat suitability projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and dispersal restriction simulations over a 200-year period. The results reveal two key findings: first, that population isolation due to landscape fragmentation is a more immediate and limiting threat to elephant viability than climate change-induced habitat shifts; and second, that certain ecosystems are consistently vulnerable to climate–driven suitability loss across all the climate scenarios. These ‘at-risk’ areas emerge as priority landscapes for targeted adaptation and resilience-building. The study calls for urgent investment in ecological connectivity to mitigate isolation risks, while also identifying areas requiring climate resilient corridor planning.

Chapter 4 investigates the role of ecotourism as a spatially targeted strategy for mitigating HEC, using Kenya’s heterogeneous landscapes as a case study. Through overlays of elephant habitat suitability, HEC risk, and tourism potential, the analysis identifies landscapes where ecotourism may enhance tolerance and promote coexistence. However, the chapter finds that in regions with limited tourism potential–such as insecure or infrastructure-poor areas–ecotourism alone is insufficient. These findings emphasise the need for additional HEC mitigation mechanisms, including land-use zoning, alternative livelihoods, artificial intelligence early warning systems, and community-based deterrent systems, particularly in high-conflict, low-tourism areas.

The final chapter synthesises these findings to argue that elephant conservation in the post-ivoryban era requires a nuanced, multi-scalar approach. Conservation strategies must go beyond reactive enforcement to anticipate ecological change, address historical injustices, and support alternative livelihoods. Methodologically, the thesis contributes by integrating species distribution modelling, resistance mapping, and population viability analysis into a spatially explicit framework for conservation decision-making. The incorporation of climate projections and human-wildlife interaction layers enhances the relevance of the findings for both ecological theory and applied conservation. Chapter 5 further aligns the study with the African Elephant Action Plan (AEAP), CITES policy developments, and global conservation targets such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), positioning the findings for policy uptake and funding alignment in cross-sectoral planning efforts.

Overall, the thesis underscores the importance of flexibility and contextual sensitivity in conservation policy. The African elephant emerges not merely as a conservation subject but as a conduit for rethinking coexistence strategies in human-dominated landscapes. As land-use pressures intensify and climate change accelerates, this research offers timely guidance for spatial planning, regional policy, and community-based interventions that are essential to sustaining both biodiversity and human well-being in the Anthropocene.