Simulating the path to net zero in an UK industrial cluster

The decarbonisation of industrial clusters is central to the UK’s net zero strategy. Located in southeast England, the Kemsley Industrial Cluster (comprising five firms) is the largest industrial cluster in the counties of Kent and Sussex, offering a critical opportunity for coordinated action. This study supports their decarbonisation-focused decision-making through a Monte Carlo simulation model. The model takes hourly energy use as input and simulates the potential impact of emerging decarbonisation technologies including hydrogen, and collaborative energy exchanges such as private wire electricity and shared steam flows. Key model outputs include emissions profiles and the overall energy balance. The model produces insights for six main decarbonisation scenarios over a 25-year horizon (2025– 2050). Results suggest the cluster could reach net zero emissions by 2035 if carbon capture is implemented. This study develops a novel Monte Carlo model that captures inter-firm dynamics within industrial clusters, directly informing collaborative decarbonisation investment strategies.