Fear and belief predict perceived carnivore abundance in Golestan National Park, Iran

Understanding local communities' perceptions of large carnivore abundance is essential for effective conservation. These perceptions are formed not only by external factors, such as the risks and costs associated with livestock loss, but also by socio‐psychological dimensions, including beliefs (e.g. support for killing problematic carnivores), emotions (e.g. fear, happiness‐and‐pride), and demographic characteristics. Such factors highlight the importance of incorporating human dimensions in conservation strategies. In 2022, we conducted interviews followed by semi‐structured questionnaires with local communities (n = 292) living in 30 villages around Iran's first biosphere reserve. We examined how beliefs, emotions, experiences of livestock loss, and demographic characteristics influence communities' perceptions of three carnivore species (i.e. leopard, grey wolf, and brown bear). Estimated carnivore abundance varied widely, with average perceived abundances of 69 leopards (95% credible interval (CrI) = 25–181), 333 wolves (CrI = 180–597), and 95 brown bears (CrI = 10–819). Emotions such as happiness‐and‐pride regarding the presence of carnivores were associated with lower perceived abundance, suggesting that individuals who hold favourable views tend to report smaller population sizes. In contrast, family beliefs supporting the killing of carnivores were consistently linked to higher perceived abundance across all species. Expressed fear was positively associated with higher perceived numbers of bears and wolves. Despite some positive attitudes, local community members tended to overcount carnivore populations. For instance, leopards were perceived to be nearly three times more numerous than scientific estimates, emphasising a discrepancy that may potentially misguide conservation efforts. We suggest engaging local communities in conservation activities, such as wildlife monitoring, to help address misconceptions, reduce fear, and promote more positive attitudes toward large carnivores. Such approaches are essential for developing socially informed, effective, and inclusive conservation strategies.