A threat-complexity hypothesis of conspiracy thinking during the COVID-19 pandemic: Cross-national and longitudinal evidence of a three-way interaction effect of financial strain, disempowerment and paranoia.

Pica, Gennaro, Leander, N. Pontus, Nariman, Hadi Sam, Hadarics, Márton, Snook, Daniel W., Bélanger, Jocelyn J., Rullo, Marika, Mehrez, Ameni, Pierro, Antonio, Sutton, Robbie M., and others. (2025) A threat-complexity hypothesis of conspiracy thinking during the COVID-19 pandemic: Cross-national and longitudinal evidence of a three-way interaction effect of financial strain, disempowerment and paranoia. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 42 (7). pp. 1464-1496. ISSN 0265-4075. E-ISSN 1460-3608. (doi:10.1177/02654075251327310) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:111090)

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/02654075251327310
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Abstract

One way to cope with crises is by attributing their ultimate causes to malevolent conspiracies. As crises are rarely simple, and may involve an interplay between multiple, co-occurring threats, we suggest that conspiracy thinking mainly occurs among individuals who experience conditions of threat complexity – such as socioeconomic vulnerability paired with a sense of helplessness in society, and who are also sufficiently paranoid to infer a conspiracy. In the present study, we focused on financial strain and disempowerment, as two relevant threats which were both dramatically affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and hypothesized a three-way interaction between financial strain, disempowerment and paranoia in predicting conspiracy thinking. This hypothesis was supported in both cross-national (N = 64,130) and longitudinal data (N = 11,159), collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. Implications of the results for understanding the tendency to reduce multiple threats to a single cause are discussed.

Item Type:	Article
DOI/Identification number:	10.1177/02654075251327310
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Institutional Unit:	Schools > School of Psychology
Former Institutional Unit:	There are no former institutional units.
Funders:	University of Kent (https://ror.org/00xkeyj56)
Depositing User:	Cassidy Rowden
Date Deposited:	28 Aug 2025 21:50 UTC
Last Modified:	30 Oct 2025 11:37 UTC
Resource URI:	https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/111090 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Sutton, Robbie M..

Creator's ORCID:	https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1542-1716
CReDIT Contributor Roles:

Douglas, Karen M..

Creator's ORCID:	https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0381-6924
CReDIT Contributor Roles:

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