Modelling Heterogeneity in the Long-term Trajectories of Individuals’ Subjective Well-being

Very little is known about how long-term well-being trajectories vary across populations. Using data from 45,160 adults in New Zealand (62% women, Mage = 41 years) surveyed annually over 13 years, we identified latent trajectories for belongingness, social support, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Through a group-based trajectory modeling approach, we found five trajectory groups: low (3-5%), moderate (11-17%), moderate-high (29-32%), high (35-45%), and very high (11-20%) well-being. While most individuals showed minimal changes, those with initially low well-being experienced the greatest change, in the direction of decreasing well-being over time. Women and individuals with higher education were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories, while age and ethnicity influenced trajectory membership differently across well-being indicators. These findings underscore the importance of acknowledging long-term heterogeneity in well-being trajectories and highlight the need for targeted preventative mental health interventions, particularly for individuals who begin with lower well-being levels.