Assessing the utility of the COVID-19 epidemic Situations of Concern classification system in guiding operational responses to the pandemic in the WHO African region: retrospective analysis

Ogundiran, Opeayo, Abbate, Jessica L., Kim, Sooyoung, Diallo, Mamadou Saliou Kalifa, Muteba, Michel, Camara, Daniel Cardoso Portela, Bianchi, Lucas, Balde, Thierno, Oyugi, Boniface, Fortin, Ann, and others. (2025) Assessing the utility of the COVID-19 epidemic Situations of Concern classification system in guiding operational responses to the pandemic in the WHO African region: retrospective analysis. Frontiers in Public Health, 13 . Article Number 1562525. ISSN 2296-2565. (doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1562525) (KAR id:110882)

PDF Publisher pdf Language: English This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Download this file (PDF/3MB)	Preview
Request a format suitable for use with assistive technology e.g. a screenreader
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1562525

Abstract

During a public health emergency, early implementation of response activities is crucial for saving lives and protecting livelihoods. The COVID-19 pandemic, declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, posed a global public health crisis that required timely decision-making despite limited data and capacity. In this context, WHO’s Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) developed the Situations of Concern (SOC) classification system to assess and monitor epidemiological risk across its 47 Member States. We conducted a retrospective analysis to evaluate the performance and operational utility of the SOC system. Using weekly country-level COVID-19 surveillance data, we found that the system demonstrated strong alignment with epidemic wave patterns, with a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 88%. SOC classifications supported timely operational decision-making in over 70% of documented support instances. Effective management of limited resources through SOC assessments also helped ensure fair distribution of support across communities. Our findings suggest that adaptable classification systems like SOC can provide effective decision-support under conditions of limited data availability, improving outbreak preparedness and response in resource-constrained settings.

Item Type:	Article
DOI/Identification number:	10.3389/fpubh.2025.1562525
Uncontrolled keywords:	Situation of Concern, epidemic, COVID-19, SAR-CoV-2, WHO African region
Subjects:	H Social Sciences
Institutional Unit:	Schools > School of Social Sciences > Centre for Health Services Studies
Former Institutional Unit:	There are no former institutional units.
SWORD Depositor:	JISC Publications Router
Depositing User:	JISC Publications Router
Date Deposited:	24 Sep 2025 08:21 UTC
Last Modified:	25 Sep 2025 17:16 UTC
Resource URI:	https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/110882 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Oyugi, Boniface.

Creator's ORCID:	https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9550-9138
CReDIT Contributor Roles:	Writing - original draft, Writing - review and editing, Formal analysis

Depositors only (login required):

Altmetric

Total Views

Total unique views of this page since July 2020. For more details click on the image.