Modeling Heterogeneity in the Long-Term Trajectories of Individuals' Well-Being

Very little is known about how long-term well-being trajectories vary across populations. Using data from 45,160 adults in New Zealand (62% women, = 41 years) surveyed annually over 13 years, we identified latent trajectories for belongingness, social support, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Through a group-based trajectory modeling approach, we found five trajectory groups: low (3%-5%), moderate (11%-17%), moderate-high (29%-32%), high (35%-45%), and very high (11%-20%) well-being. While most individuals showed minimal changes, those with initially low well-being experienced the greatest change, in the direction of decreasing well-being over time. Individuals with higher education were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories. Similarly, women were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories, except for self-esteem, where men tended to score higher over time. Lastly, age and ethnicity demonstrated more complex patterns. These findings highlight the importance of acknowledging long-term heterogeneity in well-being trajectories and emphasize the need for targeted preventive mental health interventions, particularly for individuals who begin with lower well-being levels.