Early industrialization and fertility patterns in historical China

This paper employs the demographic shocks between 1851 and 1880 as the instrumental variable to analyze the causal link between early industrialization and fertility patterns using a unique historical dataset. Our findings present a significantly negative relationship between early industrialization and the number of children but no significant causal link between early industrialization and the timing of the first birth in 19th and early 20th century China. While this indicates that early industrialization could reduce fertility, it also suggests that, in traditional Chinese society, this reduction does not happen through the timing of the first birth being delayed due to late marriage but rather through couples using intra-marital birth control methods. Finally, we find that the opportunity cost of childcare for women and the quality–quantity trade-off are two main channels linking early industrialization to fewer children.