Causality, structural modelling, and exogeneity

This paper deals with causal analysis in the social sciences. We first present a conceptual

framework according to which causal analysis is based on a rationale of variation and invariance,

and not only on regularity. We then develop a formal framework for causal analysis by means

of structural modelling. Within this framework we approach causality in terms of exogeneity

in a structural conditional model based on (i) model fit, (ii) invariance under a large variety of

environmental changes, and (iii) congruence with background knowledge. We also tackle the

issue of confounding and show how latent confounders can play havoc with exogeneity. This

framework avoids making untestable metaphysical claims about causal relations and yet remains

useful for cognitive and action-oriented goals.