Institutions, Chance and Choices: The Dynamics of Cabinet Survival in the Parliamentary Democracies of Western Europe (1945-99)

This chapter is part of a larger research project on coalition governance and seeks to provide an account of the dynamics of cabinet (and, in particular, coalition) durability in the interval between cabinet formation and termination. The chapter tests predictions about the covariation between relevant actors’ resources, their policy preferences, the institutional constraints they face and the risks posed by random events on the one hand and cabinet durability (the dependent variable) on the other. A number of predictions will be derived from the bargaining-theoretic framework outlined in the second chapter of this volume. The use of event-history analysis as a statistical method ensures that the dynamics of cabinet survival, modelled as an underlying bargaining process, can be observed and examined in a longitudinal design that is more appropriate than traditional cross-sectional regression techniques.