Goh, Rachel Sze Jen, Chong, Bryan, Jayabaskaran, Jayanth, Jauhari, Silingga Metta, Chan, Siew Pang, Kueh, Martin Tze Wah, Shankar, Kannan, Li, Henry, Chin, Yip Han, Kong, Gwyneth, and others. (2024) The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 49 . Article Number 101138. ISSN 2666-6065. (doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138) (KAR id:106547)
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| Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138 |
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Abstract
Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.
Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.
Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).
Interpretation:This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| DOI/Identification number: | 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138 |
| Uncontrolled keywords: | Global burden, Cardiovascular disease, Risk factors, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years, Asia |
| Subjects: | R Medicine |
| Divisions: | Divisions > Division of Natural Sciences > Kent and Medway Medical School |
| SWORD Depositor: | JISC Publications Router |
| Depositing User: | JISC Publications Router |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Jul 2024 14:28 UTC |
| Last Modified: | 19 Jul 2024 01:22 UTC |
| Resource URI: | https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/106547 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes) |
University of Kent Author Information
Tse, Gary.
| Creator's ORCID: |
 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5510-1253
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