Gardner, Emma, Robinson, Robert A., Julian, Angela, Boughey, Katherine, Langham, Steve, Tse-Leon, Jenny, Petrovskii, Sergei, Baker, David J., Bellamy, Chloe, Buxton, Andrew S., and others. (2024) A family of process-based models to simulate landscape use by multiple taxa. Landscape Ecology, 39 (5). Article Number 102. ISSN 0921-2973. E-ISSN 1572-9761. (doi:10.1007/s10980-024-01866-4) (KAR id:105825)
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Language: English 
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| Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-024-01866-4 |
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Abstract
Context: Land-use change is a key driver of biodiversity loss. Models that accurately predict how biodiversity might be affected by land-use changes are urgently needed, to help avoid further negative impacts and inform landscape-scale restoration projects. To be effective, such models must balance model realism with computational tractability and must represent the different habitat and connectivity requirements of multiple species.
Objectives: We explored the extent to which process-based modelling might fulfil this role, examining feasibility for different taxa and potential for informing real-world decision-making.
Methods: We developed a family of process-based models (*4pop) that simulate landscape use by birds, bats, reptiles and amphibians, derived from the well-established poll4pop model (designed to simulate bee populations). Given landcover data, the models predict spatially-explicit relative abundance by simulating optimal home-range foraging, reproduction, dispersal of offspring and mortality. The models were co-developed by researchers, conservation NGOs and volunteer surveyors, parameterised using literature data and expert opinion, and validated against observational datasets collected across Great Britain.
Results: The models were able to simulate habitat specialists, generalists, and species requiring access to multiple habitats for different types of resources (e.g. breeding vs foraging). We identified model refinements required for some taxa and considerations for modelling further species/groups.
Conclusions: We suggest process-based models that integrate multiple forms of knowledge can assist biodiversity-inclusive decision-making by predicting habitat use throughout the year, expanding the range of species that can be modelled, and enabling decision-makers to better account for landscape context and habitat configuration effects on population persistence.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| DOI/Identification number: | 10.1007/s10980-024-01866-4 |
| Additional information: | For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission. |
| Uncontrolled keywords: | foraging, population dynamics, biodiversity, land-use change, process-based modelling, dispersal |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QH Natural history > QH75 Conservation (Biology) |
| Divisions: | Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation > DICE (Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology) |
| Funders: | Natural Environment Research Council (https://ror.org/02b5d8509) |
| SWORD Depositor: | JISC Publications Router |
| Depositing User: | JISC Publications Router |
| Date Deposited: | 03 May 2024 13:52 UTC |
| Last Modified: | 05 Nov 2024 13:11 UTC |
| Resource URI: | https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/105825 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes) |
University of Kent Author Information
Buxton, Andrew S..
| Creator's ORCID: |
 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0555-2491
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| CReDIT Contributor Roles: |
Allain, Steven J. R..
| Creator's ORCID: |
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5669-0149
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| CReDIT Contributor Roles: |
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