A Comparison of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models for Interbank Rates

In this paper, we present a robust predictive comparison of several continuous-time multi-factor models in the context of interbank rates. Recognizing the specific dynamics of the short-term segment of the yield curve, we examine the U.S. money market by extending two continuous-time frameworks with different factor structures, the Chan-Karolyi-Longstaff-Sanders (CKLS) model and the arbitrage-free dynamic Nelson-Siegel (AFDNS) model. A battery of formal forecasting accuracy tests is employed to select a subset of superior predictive models. Despite a better goodness-of-fit measure, additional factors improve the forecasting performance only for the CKLS family. With implications for monetary policy formulation, we found evidence of two separate maturity segments as the three-factor AFDNS and the five-factor CKLS models outperform parsimonious benchmarks in predicting the interbank rates for very short maturities. Our comparative forecasting results are re-confirmed with stronger out-of-sample performance for the five-factor CKLS model when the post global financial crisis sub-sample is analyzed.