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A novel cardiovascular magnetic resonance risk score for predicting mortality following surgical aortic valve replacement

Vassiliou, Vassilios S., Pavlou, Menelaos, Malley, Tamir, Halliday, Brian P., Tsampasian, Vasiliki, Raphael, Claire E., Tse, Gary, Vieira, Miguel Silva, Auger, Dominique, Everett, Russell, and others. (2021) A novel cardiovascular magnetic resonance risk score for predicting mortality following surgical aortic valve replacement. Scientific Reports, 11 (1). Article Number 20183. ISSN 2045-2322. (doi:10.1038/s41598-021-99788-7) (KAR id:98234)


The increasing prevalence of patients with aortic stenosis worldwide highlights a clinical need for improved and accurate prediction of clinical outcomes following surgery. We investigated patient demographic and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) characteristics to formulate a dedicated risk score estimating long-term survival following surgery. We recruited consecutive patients undergoing CMR with gadolinium administration prior to surgical aortic valve replacement from 2003 to 2016 in two UK centres. The outcome was overall mortality. A total of 250 patients were included (68 ± 12 years, male 185 (60%), with pre-operative mean aortic valve area 0.93 ± 0.32cm2, LVEF 62 ± 17%) and followed for 6.0 ± 3.3 years. Sixty-one deaths occurred, with 10-year mortality of 23.6%. Multivariable analysis showed that increasing age (HR 1.04, P = 0.005), use of antiplatelet therapy (HR 0.54, P = 0.027), presence of infarction or midwall late gadolinium enhancement (HR 1.52 and HR 2.14 respectively, combined P = 0.12), higher indexed left ventricular stroke volume (HR 0.98, P = 0.043) and higher left atrial ejection fraction (HR 0.98, P = 0.083) associated with mortality and developed a risk score with good discrimination. This is the first dedicated risk prediction score for patients with aortic stenosis undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement providing an individualised estimate for overall mortality. This model can help clinicians individualising medical and surgical care.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1038/s41598-021-99788-7
Subjects: R Medicine
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Natural Sciences > Kent and Medway Medical School
Funders: British Heart Foundation (
Depositing User: Gary Tse
Date Deposited: 22 Nov 2022 12:44 UTC
Last Modified: 23 Nov 2022 14:26 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

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