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How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?

Bolam, Friederike C., Mair, Louise, Angelico, Marco, Brooks, Thomas M., Burgman, Mark, Hermes, Claudia, Hoffmann, Michael, Martin, Rob W., McGowan, Philip J.K., Rodrigues, Ana S.L., and others. (2020) How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented? Conservation Letters, . ISSN 1755-263X. (doi:10.1111/conl.12762) (KAR id:82839)


Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and 2–7 mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened, and may still become extinct in the near future. Nonetheless, given that ten bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1111/conl.12762
Uncontrolled keywords: Convention on Biological Diversity, Delphi method, extinction risk, Aichi Biodiversity, Target 12, species conservation
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation
Depositing User: Jim Groombridge
Date Deposited: 09 Sep 2020 14:42 UTC
Last Modified: 04 Mar 2024 19:13 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

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