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A Hierarchical Dependent Dirichlet Process Prior for Modelling Bird Migration Patterns in the UK

Diana, Alex, Matechou, Eleni, Griffin, Jim, Johnston, Alison (2020) A Hierarchical Dependent Dirichlet Process Prior for Modelling Bird Migration Patterns in the UK. Annals of Applied Statistics, 14 (1). pp. 473-493. ISSN 1932-6157. (doi:10.1214/19-AOAS1315) (KAR id:79052)

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Environmental changes in recent years have been linked to phe-nological shifts, which in turn are linked to the survival of species. The work in this paper is motivated by capture-recapture data on blackcaps collected by the British Trust for Ornithology as part of the Constant Effort Sites monitoring scheme. Blackcaps overwinter abroad and migrate to the UK annually for breeding purposes. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach for expressing the bivariate density of individual arrival and departure times at different sites across a number of years as a mixture model. The new model combines the ideas of the hierarchical and the dependent Dirichlet process, allowing the estimation of site-specific weights and year-specific mixture locations, which are modelled as functions of envi-ronmental covariates using a multivariate extension of the Gaussian process. The proposed modelling framework is extremely general and can be used in any context where multivariate density estimation is performed jointly across different groups and in the presence of a continuous covariate.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1214/19-AOAS1315
Subjects: Q Science
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Computing, Engineering and Mathematical Sciences > School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science
Depositing User: Eleni Matechou
Date Deposited: 02 Dec 2019 16:07 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Feb 2021 14:10 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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