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Estimating the social welfare effects of New Zealand apple imports

Cook, David C., Carrasco, Luis R., Paini, Dean R., Fraser, Robert (2011) Estimating the social welfare effects of New Zealand apple imports. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 55 (4). pp. 599-620. ISSN 1364-985X. (doi:10.1111/j.1467-8489.2011.00558.x) (Access to this publication is currently restricted. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:77749)

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International trade of agricultural products not only generates wealth but is also responsible for the introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range. Comprehensive bioeconomic modelling frameworks are increasingly needed to assist in the resolution of import access disputes. However, frameworks that combine welfare analysis attributable to trade and invasive species spread management are lacking. This study provides a demonstration of how a comprehensive economic framework, which takes into account both the gains from trade and the costs of invasive species outbreaks, can inform decision‐makers when making quarantine decisions. We develop a partial equilibrium trade model considering international trade and combine it with a stratified dispersal model for the spread and management of potential outbreaks of an invasive species. An empirical estimation is made of the economic welfare consequences for Australia of allowing quarantine‐restricted trade in New Zealand apples to take place. The results suggest the returns to Australian society from importing New Zealand apples are likely to be negative. The price differential between the landed product with SPS measures in place and the autarkic price is insufficient to outweigh the increase in expected damage resulting from increased fire blight risk. As a consequence, this empirical analysis does not support the opening up of this trade.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2011.00558.x
Uncontrolled keywords: biosecurity, fire blight, import risk assessment, SPS measures
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Economics
Depositing User: Robert Fraser
Date Deposited: 23 Oct 2019 15:23 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2021 10:26 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Fraser, Robert.

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