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Comparative Performances of Measures of Consumer and Economic Sentiment in Forecasting Consumption: A Multi-Country Analysis

Gausden, Robert, Hasan, Mohammad S. (2020) Comparative Performances of Measures of Consumer and Economic Sentiment in Forecasting Consumption: A Multi-Country Analysis. Applied Economics, 52 (10). pp. 1088-1104. ISSN 0003-6846. (doi:10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489) (KAR id:75917)

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https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489

Abstract

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489
Uncontrolled keywords: consumption; consumer confidence; model confidence set; consumer survey; forecasting
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Divisions > Kent Business School - Division > Kent Business School (do not use)
Depositing User: Mohammad Hasan
Date Deposited: 21 Aug 2019 09:30 UTC
Last Modified: 04 Mar 2021 00:00 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/75917 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Hasan, Mohammad S.: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2453-6868
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