Chadha, Jagjit S. and Hantzsche, Arno and Lazarowicz, Thomas and Pabst, Adrian and Young, Garry (2018) Understanding and Confronting Uncertainty: Revisions to UK Government Expenditure Plans. Discussion paper. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, UK (KAR id:69818)
PDF
Publisher pdf
Language: English |
|
Download this file (PDF/4MB) |
Preview |
Request a format suitable for use with assistive technology e.g. a screenreader | |
Official URL: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/public... |
Abstract
We develop a simple model that motivates fiscal stabilisation policy, in the presence of economic
and control uncertainty. An examination of a real-time database of economic variables and forecasts
shows that our knowledge of the current and future state of the economy is subject to significant
revisions over time. Multi-year government spending plans are also significantly revised over
successive fiscal events. We show the risk for any given government expenditure plan by
constructing measures of historical expenditure revisions. We also show that the most significant
factor in explaining public expenditure revisions are changes to the expected path of GDP growth.
We illustrate how to model the components of public expenditure and are thus able to remark on
the extent to which expenditure is warranted. Finally we report on findings from interviews with key
policymakers in the past 25 years on how fiscal expenditure was managed and uncertainty
confronted.
Item Type: | Reports and Papers (Discussion paper) |
---|---|
Additional information: | NIESR Discussion Paper No. 495 |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
Divisions: | Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Politics and International Relations |
Funders: | [UNSPECIFIED] Nuffield Foundation |
Depositing User: | Adrian Pabst |
Date Deposited: | 27 Oct 2018 22:55 UTC |
Last Modified: | 16 Feb 2021 13:58 UTC |
Resource URI: | https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/69818 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes) |
- Link to SensusAccess
- Export to:
- RefWorks
- EPrints3 XML
- BibTeX
- CSV
- Depositors only (login required):