Jimenez-Munoz, Marina, Cole, Diana J., Freeman, Stephen N., Robinson, Robert A., Baillie, Stephen R., Matechou, Eleni (2019) Estimating age-dependent survival from age-aggregated ringing data - extending the use of historical records. Ecology and Evolution, 9 (2). pp. 769-779. ISSN 2045-7758. (doi:10.1002/ece3.4820) (KAR id:69108)
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4820 |
Abstract
Bird ring-recovery data have been widely used to estimate demographic parameters
such as survival probabilities since the mid-twentieth century. However,
while the total number of birds ringed each year is usually known, historical
information on age at ringing is often not available. A standard ring-recovery
model, for which information on age at ringing is required, cannot be used
when historical data are incomplete. We develop a new model to estimate agedependent
survival probabilities from such historical data when age at ringing
is not recorded; we call this the historical data model. This new model provides
an extension to the model of Robinson (2010) by estimating the proportion of
the ringed birds marked as juveniles as an additional parameter. We conduct
a simulation study to examine the performance of the historical data model
and compare it with other models including the standard and conditional ringrecovery
models. Simulation studies show that the approach of Robinson (2010)
can cause bias in parameter estimates. In contrast, the historical data model
yields similar parameter estimates to the standard model. Parameter redundancy
results show that the newly developed historical data model is comparable
to the standard ring-recovery model, in terms of which parameters can be
estimated, and has fewer identifiability issues than the conditional model. We
illustrate the new proposed model using Blackbird and Sandwich Tern data.
The new historical data model allows us to make full use of historical data and
estimate the same parameters as the standard model with incomplete data and
in doing so, detect potential changes in demographic parameters further back
in time.
Item Type: | Article |
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DOI/Identification number: | 10.1002/ece3.4820 |
Uncontrolled keywords: | conditional model, identifiability, mark-recovery, parameter redundancy, tag-recovery, Thalasseus sandvicensis, Turdus merula |
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science) |
Divisions: | Divisions > Division of Computing, Engineering and Mathematical Sciences > School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science |
Depositing User: | M. Jimenez-Munoz |
Date Deposited: | 14 Sep 2018 15:46 UTC |
Last Modified: | 09 Jan 2024 13:08 UTC |
Resource URI: | https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/69108 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes) |
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